Neues zu Chinas Strategie

Aus China erreicht uns eine aktuelle Nachricht, die etwas Licht in sein rätselhaftes Verhalten und zu Russland bringt.

Von Torsten Kurschus

Die Autoren sind uns persönlich bekannt, sie sind ein europäischer Investor und ein chinesischer Journalist. Wir veröffentlichen den Text im uns zugegangenen Original. Selbst Tippfehler haben wir nicht korrigiert. Der Text zeigt, dass die Klarheit in China doch nicht so einfach ist und die Zwickmühle für Präsident Xi erheblich. Wir konnten alles verifizieren. Das macht eine Entscheidungsfindung für Künftiges nicht einfacher.  China bleibt eine Herausforderung und Russland eine zu entscheidende Aufgabe. Wir danken für solche Kontakte und solches Vertrauen, denn unsere Informanten sein Freunde, die selbst hart zahlen mussten, was wir aus Gründen des Informationsschutzes nicht näher erläutern. Beispielsweise sind dies staatliche Sanktionen und Willkür gegen laufende westliche Investitionsverfahren und deren Angehörige und Mitarbeiter.
Hier von unserem Kollegen Torsten A. Kurschus

1) At the CCP Party Congress, there was a significant group in the Politburo that wanted to overthrow Xi. The head of the opposition was Hu Xintao, whom Xi therefore had publicly and humiliatingly abducted. The opposition's reasoning was that Xi was driving China up the wall and arrogating dictatorial power to himself, bypassing the Politburo. 2.

2) There is still a broadly organised network within the CCP that does not agree with Xi's leadership and maintains levels of communication outside the state's instruments of observation.

3) A coup d‘ etat is nevertheless not to be expected, because the expansion of the new Chinese control network immediately captures every public, oppositional action.

4) Historical experience nevertheless shows that revolutions in China can break out overnight if one of two conditions is met:

a. the leadership is too obviously lining its own pockets, or

b. the leadership is no longer able to feed the population. At the moment, neither of the two variants is given. However, this could change quickly.

5) Our informant estimates that between 17 million people in the PRC are directly dependent on exports to Western countries (USA/EU) This is fact in important industries an in important metropoles. These include a kind of new middle class, which sells directly to local consumers as one- or two-man companies via the internet and often does not even have its own bosses, let alone premises. There is a danger that the PRC, for example, would suffer a similar fate to Russia in the event of an invasion of Taiwan and sanctions would cause this trade to collapse, which would destroy the livelihoods of this middle class. This could actually lead to uprisings. We expect 2025.

6) Regarding Taiwan: All previous CCP governments could have lived and deal well with Taiwan status till today. Xi escalates to distract from domestic policy failures.
Taiwan looks very exactly if there is a chance, a former world ruler could fail to assert national interests.
Red-China needs the best  relationships to Europe and the US. It’s afraid to get into the stream of dischargement of the industries. It‘ to differ between China and Xi. There is the last word unfortunatly open.
Most of all Chinese don‘t are interestet in polititcs (-> HongKong)  

7) The PRC is effectively bankrupt and does not fulfil existing obligations in the landlocked country without denying them. Example (which we cannot publish as this makes the source traceable):

At the gates of Beijing, because Beijing is overflowing, a new retort city of millions is to be built. My informant had been running his largest factory on the plot of land earmarked for this purpose. One day he received a visit from the political leadership and was told that he had to relocate because the plot of land was needed. In fact, he was allocated a new plot of land well outside and the factory was completely dismantled at state expense and rebuilt elsewhere. In addition, a sale agreement was drawn up for the old land with a significant purchase sum to be paid out in instalments. However, these payments have not yet been made, and when asked personally, the state does not question the contract (i.e. no expropriation through the back door), but only repeatedly points out that there is currently no money available and that the contractual partner should please be patient. The reason is the lack of a relationship to money and nonsensical large-scale investments. For example, my informant regularly stayed in a 500-bed hotel that had been built in a rush in the province south of Beijing as a New Swanstein-inspired hotel for a planned Disneyland. Orlando then decided on a different location at short notice, he said - but the hotel is up and running, but usually only occupied by five or ten guests. Literally: "Every time I stay there, I wonder if I should eat there too. After all, no one knows how long the food has been stored."

8) Domestic debt in the PRC has reached a level that could become a fuse. As in the past, Shanghai is seen as the biggest danger in Beijing: If it starts to burn in the metropolis, this could organise a conflagration in all provinces within a very short time.

9) Xi had (as I had reported) attempted to usher in a phase of thaw with the USA primarily for economic reasons. The balloon abruptly stopped this, although it had not been an action planned from Beijing. The most likely scenario, he said, was that a project to this effect had been initiated several months ago and the stop order was either forgotten in Beijing or got stuck on its way through the instances.

The responsible military department had simply continued and thus unintentionally destroyed Xi's planning. Now, because of the loss of face (one cannot admit such a failure), one cannot get down anymore and the confrontation with the USA goes into the next round.

10) The best indicator of the PRC-US relationship is the exchange rate. When Tump introduced his punitive tariffs, Beijing reacted with a significant devaluation, whereupon the export volume remained virtually the same and Chinese producers hardly felt the US embargo. This was a regular reaction, which now also followed the balloon affair. 11.

11) Unlike the leadership in Beijing, the Chinese economy had not the slightest interest in a conflict with the USA or the EU. They just want to do business and know very well that Russia can never replace these markets. 12.

12) Speaking of Russia: Importing into the Russian Federation is still difficult because of the corruption in Russia. My informant's company has effectively stopped doing business with Russia (because it is not subject to the Chinese embargo), while business with Ukraine is currently "very positive". The problem was that (sample) shipments to the Russian Federation never arrived despite being sent by DHL. During the investigation, a potential recipient asked whether "the envelope" had been attached to the outside of the shipment? The "envelope" is an unaddressed letter with cash that the Russian customs officer expects in exchange for allowing the shipment into Russia. Official freight documents do not play a role in this procedure and are not required - if "the envelope" is missing, the consignment ends up in "internal recycling" - i.e. the contents are distributed among the customs officers on the spot. With an envelope, the contents are not checked and the parcel passes through. (Reminds me of experiences in the 90s when we were on our way from Helsinki to St. Petersburg with an aid transport and passed the kilometre-long entry column in the opposite lane and accompanied by angry gesticulating lorry drivers. After a small baksheesh in the form of cash, cigarettes and chocolate - graded according to rank - we were then approved for entry to Russia in a fast-track procedure in the clearance booth.

The view of our relief supplies - including sanitary facilities and a complete Bundeswehr kitchen - was rather superficial).    

13) The only thing that Putin and Xi actually have in common is a hellish fear of Western democracy, which is therefore described as a US imperialist takeover. The rigorous action against the opposition in Hong Kong is also exclusively due to this. Otherwise, no one in Beijing is interested in Hong Kong.

About the person of my informant - please keep this strictly confidential, as restrictions in the PRC could be expected: Since the first economic relations of the FRG with the PRC in the 1950s, through his father as a wholesaler in the China business, originally as an importer of China carpets. In the course of the easing, active development aid for the partners in the PRC, including "basic courses" in market economy. In the 90s/00s, as a result of a "carpet slump" in the Germany/EU business, merger with the Chinese main supplier, since then expansion of the business field to include floor coverings of all kinds.
A side note: The flooring industry is one of the Corona winners, as the banishment of the population to their own homes has caused DIY sales of flooring to skyrocket to astronomical heights.
Then, at the end of 2021/beginning of 2022, the slump and, with the Ukraine invasion, the de facto collapse of the business as all consumer activity ceased. With the energy crisis from autumn 2022 onwards, new sales records were suddenly set in the carpet segment: people looked at their cold, bare floor coverings and decided to defy the heating-saving appeals with insulating floor coverings. At present, carpet sales are a mainstay of business at the large furniture stores, while sales of traditional furnishings have slumped.

14)  China can‘t be interested to lose it’s important markets and trade relations with Europe and US for a weak Russia.
a) For comparison. The trade volume between China and:
Russia   145 Mrd USD
USA       700 Mrd USD
Europe 700 Mrd USD
India     100 Mrd USD
That means, there is no doubt about the most important preferences of China.
b) Right know China hast to decide. If China and India abstain, that is not a yes for russia. But it’s a signal of understanding, the former order of the world is changing now.   
That is why China can’t goes into the total opposition to Europe and US.
c) Because this China searches new ways to come togehter, but the western world have tob e very careful, because China is searching it‘s own role in a changed world order now and tests out it’s opportunities and the straightness and the power oft he West.

Autor: Redaktion
Bild Quelle: Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Freitag, 24 Februar 2023